Notes · 5 October 2026
Gameweek 6: the captaincy is closer than the ownership says
Football is back on Saturday. Three players are separated by 0.16 projected points at the top, one of them is in three out of four teams, and another one is being sold. Here is how I read the week, and the flags that will decide most of it.
The GW6 deadline is Saturday 10 October at 11:00 UK time. Arsenal against Leeds kicks off 90 minutes later, Liverpool against City is on Sunday afternoon, and the week finishes with Coventry against Newcastle on Monday night.
Everything below is from the model as of Monday morning. The international games finish tomorrow and the press conferences come on Thursday and Friday, so some of these numbers will move. The version that counts is the one the scorecard locks two hours before the deadline. That is the one I will be scored on next week.
The captain: three names, no real gap
| Player | Opponent | Owned | GW6 | GW6 to GW10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saka (ARS, £9.5m) | Leeds (h) | 13.9% | 5.58 | 27.5 |
| Haaland (MCI, £15.6m) | Liverpool (a) | 73.9% | 5.47 | 29.8 |
| B.Fernandes (MUN, £11.9m) | Spurs (h) | 38.4% | 5.42 | 25.4 |
| Mbeumo (MUN, £7.9m) | Spurs (h) | 20.5% | 4.97 | 23.1 |
Saka is top for the week, but by 0.11. That is not a signal, that is rounding. The model cannot tell these three apart for one game and I would not trust anyone who says theirs can.
What separates them is ownership. Haaland is in 74% of teams and has been the most captained player in every gameweek so far. If you own him and captain someone else, you are not really chasing points, you are taking a rank bet. Sometimes that is the right call. In a week where the projections are this close, I do not think the model gives you a reason to.
One thing worth knowing: Anfield is one of his tougher games in this run. The model has him at 6.54 for GW7 at home to Ipswich. If you are thinking about captaining someone else this week, it is GW7 where Haaland gets the armband back with interest.
Bruno is being sold, and I do not see why
Bruno Fernandes has had 156,000 net transfers out since GW5. The model has him third for the week, at home to Spurs, which FPL rates as a 2 for difficulty. Mbeumo is eighth in the same game.
I get that £11.9m is a lot of money to have sitting in one midfielder, and if you need the cash for something else, fine. But if you are selling him because of the last few weeks, this is the wrong week to do it.
The fixture the model likes most: Hull v Everton
If I had to pick one game for defenders this week, it is this one, and I mean both sides of it. Tarkowski (5.24) is the highest projected defender and fourth overall. Hull's Mendy, at £4.1m, is right behind him on 5.17. Branthwaite is on 4.83, Pickford is the top keeper at 4.38, and Barry is the third best forward on 4.52.
It looks strange that both defences project well in the same game, and I want to be upfront about why. A big part of it is defensive contribution points, which these players get from blocks, tackles and clearances whether they keep a clean sheet or not. Tarkowski and Mendy both rack those up. If you want the long version, it is in the fixture run piece, where the same thing makes Leeds players look better than people expect.
That shows up again this week, actually. Trafford is the second best keeper for GW6, away at Arsenal. Make of that what you want. I am noting it because if he concedes three on Saturday, I would rather have said it beforehand.
The flags decide the week
| Player | Owned | Flag | GW6 now | GW6 if fit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro (CHE) | 64.9% | 75%, knee | 3.59 | 4.55 |
| Palmer (CHE) | 25.5% | 75%, muscular | 3.99 | 4.60 |
| Isak (LIV) | 22.2% | 75%, thigh | 3.97 | 4.84 |
| Semenyo (MCI) | 15.2% | 75%, ankle | 3.64 | 4.13 |
| Gakpo (LIV) | 12.3% | 75%, ankle | 3.48 | 4.35 |
João Pedro is the big one. He is still in 65% of teams, he is the most sold player of the week (342,000 out), and he is at 75% with a knee. If he is fit, he is a perfectly fine hold at home to Bournemouth. If he is not, a lot of people have a problem on Saturday morning.
Isak is the one I keep coming back to. If the flag comes off, 4.84 would put him tenth for the whole week. Liverpool against City has him and Gakpo on one side and Semenyo on the other, all three flagged, all in the same game on Sunday.
My advice is the same as last week: do not sell any of these yet. Wait for the press conferences. The difference between "fit" and "out" is much bigger than any price change you will catch by moving early.
The ones that are not a question
A few are already settled. Elanga is out with no return date, and 4.5% of teams still have him. Watkins has joined Al Hilal permanently and is somehow still in 2.5% of teams. If either is in yours, that is the easiest transfer you will make all season. Foden is suspended until 17 October, so he is back for GW7, not this week.
Groß: still fine, just not top
Groß has been the most bought player of the break by a mile, 814,000 in. The model has him 15th for GW6, 4.68 away at Sunderland. That is a good number for a £5.9m midfielder. It is not a must have number.
As I wrote in the running hot piece, he has 7 goal involvements from about 2.6 expected. Some of that is him being good and some of it is luck, and the model only believes part of it. If you already have him, keep him. If you are spending your one free transfer on him this week, there are other ways to use it.
Captain whoever you own between Haaland, Saka and Bruno, and do not overthink it. Spend the week on the flags instead. That is where GW6 is actually decided.
What I would do
Nothing until Friday. Then: sort out Elanga or Watkins if you have them, check João Pedro and Isak once the press conferences are done, and captain Haaland if you own him. If you do not own him, Saka or Bruno are both fine and the model will not hold it against you.
If you want to see what the flags do to your own team, put your ID into My Team. And if you are planning a wildcard around this week, the wildcard planner lets you leave the flagged players out and see what it costs.
I will put up the locked numbers on Saturday and score them after the Monday game. Good luck this week.