Notes · 28 September 2026
The fixture run from GW6 to GW10
Fulham have the kindest five gameweeks in the league, whichever way you measure it. Leeds are tied for the hardest. Over those same five weeks the model projects four Leeds players above anyone at Fulham.
The international break is the time everyone opens the fixture ticker, sorts by colour and starts planning a wildcard around whoever has the most green. That is a reasonable instinct. It is also worth checking how much the green is actually worth, because for a lot of players it is less than the ticker suggests.
Everything below is live output from the model as of 28 September, covering Gameweeks 6 to 10. The GW6 deadline is Saturday 10 October at 11:00 UK time.
Every run, two ways
FDR is FPL's own difficulty rating, 1 to 5, averaged over the five fixtures. The second column is what the model uses alongside it: how many expected goals those five opponents have conceded per 90 minutes this season, on average. Higher is softer. The league average is roughly 1.49.
| Rank | Team | GW6–10 | FDR | Opp. xGC/90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fulham | ips, HUL, cov, avl, NEW | 2.4 | 1.58 |
| 2 | Newcastle | cov, AVL, cry, EVE, ful | 2.8 | 1.58 |
| 3 | Coventry | NEW, tot, FUL, SUN, eve | 2.8 | 1.54 |
| 4= | Tottenham | mun, COV, che, CRY, lee | 3.0 | 1.52 |
| 4= | Sunderland | BHA, bou, LEE, cov, CHE | 3.0 | 1.52 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | BRE, new, MCI, FUL, mun | 3.2 | 1.51 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | che, SUN, mun, LEE, ips | 3.2 | 1.50 |
| 8 | Brighton | sun, CRY, liv, mci, BRE | 3.4 | 1.49 |
| 9 | Man City | liv, IPS, avl, BHA, nfo | 3.0 | 1.49 |
| 10= | Everton | hul, CHE, ars, new, COV | 3.2 | 1.49 |
| 10= | Man Utd | TOT, lee, BOU, che, AVL | 3.0 | 1.49 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | NFO, bha, NEW, tot, LIV | 3.4 | 1.47 |
| 13 | Brentford | avl, LIV, hul, NFO, bha | 3.2 | 1.47 |
| 14 | Liverpool | MCI, bre, BHA, ARS, cry | 3.4 | 1.47 |
| 15 | Ipswich | FUL, mci, NFO, hul, BOU | 3.0 | 1.46 |
| 16 | Nott'm Forest | cry, ARS, ips, bre, MCI | 3.2 | 1.46 |
| 17 | Chelsea | BOU, eve, TOT, MUN, sun | 3.0 | 1.45 |
| 18 | Hull | EVE, ful, BRE, IPS, ars | 3.2 | 1.43 |
| 19 | Leeds | ars, MUN, sun, bou, TOT | 3.4 | 1.40 |
| 20 | Arsenal | LEE, nfo, EVE, liv, HUL | 3.0 | 1.38 |
Capitals are home games, lower case away. Ranked by the second column.
Where the two disagree
The top of the table is not controversial. Fulham, Newcastle and Coventry are soft on both measures, and if you want attacking returns from a fixture swing, that is where it points.
The bottom is more interesting. Arsenal sit on an FDR of 3.0, the same as half the league, and it looks like a perfectly ordinary run. By what their opponents actually concede it is the worst in the league. Leeds, Forest, Everton and Liverpool have all been tight this season, and FDR rates three of those four as a 3. Saka is still projected second in the game over these five weeks, but that is Saka, not the fixtures.
Brighton go the other way. Their 3.4 is tied for the worst FDR, mostly because Liverpool and City are in it, but Sunderland and Palace are both leaking chances and the run comes out 8th. If you were ruling out Brighton players on colour alone, the numbers do not back that up.
That is why the model does not use FDR on its own. FDR puts every team into five buckets and cannot tell two 3s apart. The attacking adjustment blends it with the opponent's actual expected goals conceded, so a 3 against a leaky side and a 3 against a tight one come out differently.
The Leeds problem
Leeds have Arsenal away and United at home in the first two weeks, then Sunderland and Bournemouth away. On both measures that is a run to avoid. Here is what the model projects anyway, compared with the best-projected Fulham player:
| Player | GW6 | GW7 | GW8 | GW9 | GW10 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stach (LEE, £6.0m) | 4.86 | 4.88 | 4.82 | 4.77 | 4.76 | 24.1 |
| Muharemović (LEE, £5.0m) | 4.14 | 4.79 | 4.92 | 4.90 | 5.49 | 24.2 |
| King (FUL, £5.5m) | 4.20 | 4.38 | 4.19 | 3.99 | 4.24 | 21.0 |
| Gonzalo (FUL, £6.0m) | 4.00 | 4.17 | 3.98 | 3.83 | 4.09 | 20.1 |
Look at Stach's row. 4.86 away at Arsenal, 4.76 at home to Spurs. The hardest fixture on his schedule is projected slightly higher than the easiest. King, with the best run in the league, never gets above 4.38.
The reason is defensive contribution points. A midfielder who makes 12 clearances, blocks, interceptions, tackles and recoveries in a match gets 2 points, and Stach has been averaging 12.3 per 90. The model gives him an 86% chance of hitting it in GW6. Muharemović is a defender, needs 10, averages 11.6, and gets 93%. Those points do not care who is in the other half.
If anything they go the other way. The model assumes a team makes more defensive actions against a stronger opponent, because it spends longer defending. So some of what Stach loses in attacking threat at the Emirates, he gets back in tackles.
A fixture ticker ranks teams. Points come from players, and for a nailed-on player with a reliable floor, five weeks of bad fixtures moves the weekly projection by a fraction of a point.
What this does not say
It does not say fixtures do not matter. For attackers they matter a lot: Haaland goes from 5.47 away at Liverpool to 6.54 at home to Ipswich, a swing of more than a point in one week. If you are choosing between two similar forwards, pick the one with the run.
It also does not say Stach is a great pick. His ceiling is low. 0.18 expected goals per 90 is modest, and his returns so far are 13, 4, 2, 3 and 5. The model has him at just under 5 every week, and that flatness is exactly why a bad fixture does not hurt him much. It also means he rarely wins you a week.
And one assumption deserves flagging. How much extra defending the model expects against a strong side is a fixed weighting I set, not something fitted from data yet. If it is too generous, Leeds players are slightly overrated in the Arsenal week. That is one of the things the scorecard will show over the next few gameweeks, since every projection is locked before the deadline and scored after, unedited.
So what would I actually do
If you are wildcarding in the break, do not sell a nailed defensive midfielder or centre-back just because the ticker turned red. That is the transfer the ticker tempts you into and the one the model rates as least useful.
Use fixtures to pick between attackers of similar quality. Fulham's are fine and cheap, King at £5.5m and 2.6% owned is a reasonable punt, but they are not the jackpot the colours suggest. Newcastle's run is nearly as good and Hall is projected 22.9 over the five weeks.
And do not rule out Arsenal or Brighton on colour. One of them is harder than it looks and the other is easier.
The full grid, with every team's next eight gameweeks, is on the fixtures page, and the five-week projections for every player are on the players page. Both update as FPL does.